TLDR
- Gold prices advanced 0.9% to reach $5,232.21 per ounce on Friday, marking a seventh consecutive monthly increase
- Investment firm Bernstein projects gold will hit $4,800 by 2026 and climb to $6,100 by 2030
- Strong central bank purchasing and ETF capital flows underpin the optimistic price projections
- Trade policy uncertainty and Middle East geopolitical tensions continue supporting safe-haven buying
- Bernstein elevated Newmont (NEM) rating to Outperform, establishing a $157 target price
The spot price of gold increased 0.9% to settle at $5,232.21 per ounce on Friday, extending the precious metal’s winning streak to seven consecutive months. April-delivery U.S. gold futures contracts advanced 1.2% to reach $5,253.20.
February alone has witnessed a 6.5% appreciation in gold values. Across the seven-month rally, the yellow metal has surged an impressive 58%.
The upward momentum reflects market participants’ concerns regarding U.S. trade policy direction and ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran concerning Iran’s nuclear program.
“Gold is receiving support from two primary factors. The current uncertainty surrounding tariff policies represents one pillar, while the evolving situation between Iran and the United States provides the second,” explained Soni Kumari, an analyst at ANZ.
The United States implemented a 10% blanket import tariff beginning Tuesday. According to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, this rate will increase to 15% for select nations.
Indirect negotiations between American and Iranian representatives occurred in Geneva on Thursday. An Omani intermediary characterized the discussions as productive, with technical-level meetings scheduled for Vienna next week.
“These recent negotiation rounds haven’t yielded definitive results, meaning geopolitical concerns persist without immediate escalation,” noted Linh Tran, who serves as senior market analyst at XS.com.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest point in three months on Friday, diminishing the opportunity cost associated with holding gold, which generates no yield — a favorable dynamic that has previously benefited the precious metal.
Bernstein’s Extended Price Projections
Investment research firm Bernstein has elevated its extended-term gold price forecasts, now anticipating $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and $6,100 by decade’s end.
Analyst Bob Brackett constructed the projections using a model centered on net central bank demand combined with ETF investment flows, factoring in anticipated U.S. interest rate reductions.
Central bank gold acquisitions decelerated during 2025 yet remain substantially elevated compared to pre-2022 benchmarks. Survey findings indicate 95% of central banking institutions anticipate worldwide gold reserves will increase throughout the coming year.
ETF position sizes have expanded considerably since the middle of 2024. Brackett characterized ETFs as a “swing” variable — capable of magnifying price movements when capital inflows accelerate.
Market pricing currently incorporates expectations for two to three Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026. Brackett observed that gold has historically appreciated an average of 6.53% during the twelve-month period following rate cuts, suggesting potential aggregate returns approaching 13% from monetary policy adjustments alone.
Newmont Rating Elevated
Bernstein simultaneously upgraded mining company Newmont (NEM) to Outperform status, assigning a $157 price objective. The research firm increased its EBITDA projection for the mining operation by 26% to $21.9 billion, powered by the updated gold price assumptions.
NEM shares advanced 2.33% during Friday’s trading session.
Other precious metals also posted gains: spot silver surged 4.4% to $92.20 per ounce, positioning for a 6.2% monthly advance. Spot platinum jumped 5.3% to a four-week peak of $2,393.80, while palladium appreciated 1.5% to $1,810.60.
