Key Takeaways
- Viasat’s Q4 Ebitda reached $370M while revenue hit $1.2B, falling short of analyst projections
- Earnings per share registered at -$0.02, dramatically outperforming the -$0.43 consensus — a 95% upside surprise
- Shares declined approximately 9% Friday despite the earnings beat, following an extraordinary 846% climb in the prior year
- Fiscal 2027 outlook projects mid-single-digit revenue expansion with Ebitda remaining essentially unchanged
- Barclays maintained its Equalweight stance with a $49 target, suggesting significant downside from current levels
Viasat (VSAT) released quarterly results Thursday that left investors decidedly underwhelmed. The satellite communications provider watched its shares plummet roughly 9% Friday, hovering around $79, following financial results that came tantalizingly close to expectations but ultimately fell short.
The company reported fourth-quarter Ebitda of $370 million alongside revenue totaling $1.2 billion. Analyst consensus had anticipated $383 million in Ebitda and $1.2 billion in revenue. While revenue climbed 2% compared to the prior year, it still underperformed StreetAccount expectations by 2.4%. Adjusted Ebitda declined 1% year-over-year and came in 3.5% below consensus forecasts.
However, the earnings per share metric told a more encouraging tale. Viasat reported a loss of just $0.02 per share versus the anticipated loss of $0.43 — representing a stunning 95% positive surprise. Market watchers now anticipate the company will achieve profitability during fiscal 2027, with earnings per share forecasted at $1.38.
Forward Outlook Meets Expectations
Management issued fiscal 2027 guidance anticipating mid-single-digit percentage revenue growth alongside Ebitda performance that should remain flat or modestly higher compared to the previous year. Capital spending is projected between $950 million and $1 billion, with free cash flow estimated at approximately $180 million, excluding any Ligado-related lump sum receipts.
The Defense and Advanced Technologies division provided encouraging results, delivering 12% revenue growth year-over-year during Q4. Conversely, the Communication Services segment experienced a 2% decline. Forward projections call for defense-related revenue to expand in the mid-teens percentage range, while Communication Services should see low single-digit growth.
Net indebtedness decreased sequentially to $4.8 billion. Quarterly free cash flow registered at $24 million — substantially below Barclays’ $91 million projection. Contract bookings increased 9% year-over-year to $1.3 billion.
Riding the Space Sector Wave
A 9% single-session decline would typically raise eyebrows for any publicly traded company. For Viasat, however, it represents merely a small correction within a much larger narrative. Leading up to Thursday’s closing bell, VSAT shares had skyrocketed an astounding 846% over the trailing twelve months.
This remarkable ascent has been driven partially by tangible business achievements — including securing a significant contract with the U.S. Space Force — and partially by widespread enthusiasm surrounding space-related investments. SpaceX’s prospective public offering, potentially commanding a valuation near $2 trillion, has generated positive momentum throughout the entire sector.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has surged 437% during the identical twelve-month window. EchoStar, benefiting from spectrum arrangements with SpaceX, has appreciated roughly 557%.
Barclays reaffirmed its Equalweight assessment on VSAT Friday while maintaining a $49 price objective. With shares currently trading near $79 and approaching the 52-week peak of $89.78, the bank’s target implies considerable downside potential. InvestingPro’s Fair Value methodology similarly suggests the stock may be trading above reasonable valuation levels at present prices.
Maritime revenue streams are projected to achieve stability by late 2027. The Equatys D2D initiative remains scheduled to commence operations in 2029.
