TLDR
- Circle Internet (CRCL) shares touched $90 intraday Thursday before closing near $87, riding momentum from Wednesday’s ~30% earnings-driven rally
- Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share reached $0.43, topping analyst estimates of $0.35; revenue totaled $770 million, marking 77% growth versus the prior year
- Bernstein maintained its Outperform stance with a $190 target, highlighting the company’s “clear divergence from crypto” trends
- Mizuho upgraded its price objective to $90 from $77 while keeping a Neutral rating, citing interest-rate reduction risks
- William Blair and Clear Street both published upbeat assessments; Clear Street bumped its target from $85 to $92
Shares of Circle Internet Group pushed above the $90 mark briefly during Thursday’s trading session before pulling back to approximately $87.
The advance followed Wednesday’s dramatic 30% spike triggered by robust fourth-quarter financial results.
Q4 Financial Performance
The stablecoin issuer delivered fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.43, surpassing Wall Street’s $0.35 consensus by approximately 23%. Total revenue reached $770 million, representing a 77% increase compared to the same period last year.
The impressive quarterly performance prompted multiple Wall Street research firms to reassess their outlook, though opinions varied on the stock’s trajectory.
Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating while standing by its $190 price objective. The firm characterized the quarterly results as representing a “clear divergence from crypto,” emphasizing stronger transaction-based revenue streams and expanding blockchain rewards stemming from Circle’s super validator status on the Canton network.
A key metric highlighted by Bernstein: USDC stablecoin held directly on Circle’s proprietary platform expanded to 17% of total circulation during Q4, compared to 14% in the previous quarter.
Management guidance indicates expectations for USDC supply to grow at a 40% annual compound rate, while other revenue streams are projected to reach as high as $170 million in 2026, up from $110 million recorded in 2025.
Analyst Views Split on Upside
Mizuho’s Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins increased their price objective to $90 from $77 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares.
The analysts highlighted prediction platforms such as Polymarket as representing a “visible, scaled USDC use case,” driving substantial transaction activity that bolsters both revenue generation and reserve holdings. Company executives identified Polymarket as a significant factor in recent USDC expansion.
Mizuho also referenced “agentic AI” — autonomous software systems utilizing internet-native currencies — as a potential long-term catalyst for USDC adoption, though current transaction volumes remain minimal.
However, the firm cautioned that prospective Federal Reserve interest-rate reductions pose a risk. Reserve-based income continues to represent the majority of Circle’s revenue stream, making it vulnerable to downward rate adjustments.
Other Analysts Weigh In
William Blair maintained its Outperform rating and encouraged long-term investors to consider accumulating shares at current levels.
The firm views USDC as positioned to become the leading commerce-oriented stablecoin, supported by full fiat reserve backing, regulatory adherence, and growing network effects. William Blair referenced the approximately $20 trillion global cross-border business-to-business payment market as the ultimate addressable opportunity, while recognizing that the path to full market penetration remains uncertain.
Wall Street consensus forecasts project 62% revenue expansion for Circle during the current fiscal year.
Clear Street lifted its price target to $92 from $85 while maintaining a Hold rating, attributing the revision to enhanced fundamental metrics following the “strong” quarterly report.
Circle Internet currently changes hands around $81.88 with a market capitalization of $14.45 billion, though shares remain down approximately 51% over the trailing six-month period.
According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a net cash position on its balance sheet.
Bernstein identified Circle’s Arc product offering, the Circle Payments Network infrastructure, and emerging agentic payment capabilities as key areas of product development heading into 2026.
