Key Takeaways
- Walmart’s Q1 FY27 results arrive May 21, with Wall Street forecasting $0.66 EPS and approximately $174.8B in revenue
- Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive: 28 out of 30 rate the stock a Buy with price targets spanning $132–$150
- Recent upgrades include Piper Sandler to $137, Bernstein to $145, while UBS maintains $147
- Projections point to U.S. comparable store sales increasing 3.9%–4.5%, fueled by digital commerce and food categories
- Consumer sentiment has plunged to levels not seen since 1952, with elevated fuel costs posing ongoing challenges
Shares of Walmart have climbed approximately 18% year-to-date, trading near $131 as of May 17. As Thursday’s quarterly report approaches, the retail behemoth enjoys widespread analyst support while navigating tangible economic pressures.
Street sentiment leans decidedly positive. Among 30 sell-side analysts tracking the company, 28 maintain Buy recommendations. The consensus price target hovers around $136.45, suggesting moderate appreciation potential from present levels. Peter Keith at Piper Sandler increased his forecast to $137 from $130, maintaining an Overweight stance. His analysis suggests consumer outlays have remained resilient despite elevated gasoline prices, though tax refund season failed to ignite the anticipated retail surge—households seemingly opted to preserve liquidity rather than increase purchases.
Bernstein’s Zhihan Ma elevated his target from $134 to $145. His research indicates retailers catering to affluent demographics may find tailwinds from recent legislative changes, though he cautioned that energy expenses, persistent inflation, and diminished fiscal transfer payments could constrain broader consumption patterns.
Michael Lasser at UBS maintained his Buy rating with a $147 objective. His forecast anticipates roughly 4.5% growth in U.S. comparable sales, propelled by e-commerce expansion exceeding 25%. While acknowledging potential softness in health and wellness categories, Lasser projects Walmart’s domestic operations will deliver profit expansion near the upper boundary of management’s guidance.
Financial Expectations Breakdown
Consensus projections call for first-quarter earnings per share of $0.66, representing roughly 8% annual growth. Revenue estimates center around $174.8B, reflecting over 6% expansion. These figures follow Q4 FY2025 performance where Walmart delivered $190.7B in revenue and $0.74 EPS—both surpassing expectations—though net income declined approximately 19% due to a non-recurring write-down related to Vizio acquisition integration and elevated supply chain expenses.
This reporting period, market participants will scrutinize comparable store sales metrics intensely. Forecasts suggest U.S. same-store sales growth between 3.9%–4.5%, underpinned by grocery demand and affluent shoppers shifting toward value-oriented options. Food categories constitute roughly two-thirds of Walmart’s domestic revenue stream, providing defensive characteristics when discretionary budgets tighten.
Investor attention will also center on newly appointed CEO John Furner’s strategic commentary. Having assumed leadership February 1, this marks his inaugural complete quarter at the helm. Analysts anticipate pragmatic guidance emphasizing competitive positioning and candid assessments of second-half consumption trajectories.
High-Margin Segments Under Scrutiny
Walmart’s advertising platform and membership subscription services have emerged as increasingly significant revenue contributors. Global advertising income surged 37% in the fourth quarter, with Walmart Connect specifically advancing 41%. Walmart+ subscription revenues climbed 15.1%. Operating profitability for these divisions exceeds 70%, dramatically outperforming conventional retail economics.
Market observers seek confirmation that worldwide advertising expansion can sustain growth above 30% this period. Such performance would help counterbalance any compression in discretionary merchandise categories.
Barclays reaffirmed its Buy rating with a $132 target. Bank of America preserved its Buy recommendation at $150, emphasizing the durability of core customer cohorts and expectations that macroeconomic uncertainty will channel additional shoppers toward discount-focused retailers. Wolfe Research boosted its target from $135 to $137.
Walmart’s current price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 48x stands considerably above its five-year historical average of 36x.
