TLDR
- Investment bank Stifel Financial forecasts Bitcoin may decline to $38,000, representing a 43% correction from approximately $65,000
- The projection relies on a 15-year support trendline mapped through historical bottom prices of every significant Bitcoin crash dating back to 2010
- Bitcoin demonstrates a 0.78 correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq 100, behaving increasingly like technology equities rather than an inflation hedge
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have experienced $3.8 billion in net outflows across five consecutive weeks, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $2.1 billion
- Optimistic analysts present competing forecasts ranging from $170,000 (JPMorgan) to $250,000 (Fundstrat’s Tom Lee)
A century-old financial institution, Stifel Financial, has issued a bearish projection suggesting Bitcoin may retreat to $38,000. This represents a substantial 43% correction from today’s trading levels around $65,000, and an even more dramatic 70% plunge from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, developed this forecast alongside his research team. Their methodology involved plotting a support trendline connecting the nadir of each significant Bitcoin market crash spanning from 2010 to present day, then projecting that line forward.
Historical crashes in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 displayed varying magnitudes of decline, yet the recovery lows consistently established higher floors. This ascending trendline, when extrapolated to the current market environment, intersects at $38,000.
Bitcoin experienced a devastating 93% collapse in 2011, followed by 84% in 2015 and 83% in 2018. The 2022 bear market found support around $15,500. Following each capitulation event, committed long-term investors accumulated at progressively elevated price levels, establishing higher support zones.
Stifel emphasizes this isn’t a guaranteed prediction of imminent collapse. The research firm notes that stabilizing factors present during previous market bottoms have yet to materialize in current conditions.
Bitcoin Acting More Like a Tech Stock
Bitcoin previously functioned as a potential safe haven during dollar weakness. That dynamic has fundamentally shifted.
The Dollar Index declined approximately 10% throughout 2025 and shed an additional 1% in early 2026, yet Bitcoin depreciated concurrently rather than appreciating. Bannister characterizes this inverted relationship as the “Benjamin Button” phenomenon.
Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq 100 has reached 0.78. When technology sector equities experience selling pressure, Bitcoin typically follows suit.
The Federal Reserve implemented modest rate reductions in December 2025 while maintaining hawkish forward guidance. Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Fed Chair signals continued restrictive monetary policy through 2027. Global M2 money supply is simultaneously contracting, diminishing available speculative capital across markets.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products have registered $3.8 billion in net outflows spanning five weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT experienced $2.1 billion in redemptions during this timeframe alone.
The CLARITY Act, legislation designed to provide institutional investors enhanced regulatory clarity, stagnated in January following Coinbase’s withdrawal of support over contested stablecoin yield provisions.
What Bitcoin Bulls Are Saying
Stifel’s bearish perspective faces significant opposition. JPMorgan projects Bitcoin advancing toward $170,000 within 6 to 12 months, deriving this target through volatility-adjusted comparisons with gold.
JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou calculates Bitcoin currently trades approximately $68,000 beneath fair valuation relative to gold. He characterizes this as a quantitative assessment rather than definitive price prediction.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee maintains targets between $200,000 and $250,000 by year-end 2026. His thesis centers on the April 2024 halving event, which historically catalyzes price peaks 12 to 18 months subsequently.
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX’s former CEO, similarly anticipates Bitcoin exceeding $200,000, attributing his outlook to what he identifies as covert quantitative easing via Federal Reserve Reserve Management Purchases.
Previous pessimistic forecasts have proven excessively bearish. During 2022, numerous analysts warned of $10,000 targets, yet Bitcoin established a floor at $15,760.
Stifel identifies $54,000 as the critical breakdown threshold. Penetration below this level could unlock downside momentum toward $45,000, subsequently opening pathways to $38,000. Conversely, sustained trading above $58,000 to $60,000 would undermine the bearish scenario.
Bitcoin presently trades near $65,000, following $3.8 billion in ETF outflows recorded throughout the preceding five-week period.
