Key Takeaways
- Transform Ventures founder Michael Terpin, nicknamed the “Godfather of Crypto,” is taking short positions on Bitcoin despite maintaining a bullish long-term stance
- Terpin assigns 2-to-1 probability that Bitcoin will decline to a range of $48,000–$60,000 by October 2026
- Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin accumulation and ETF capital inflows are expected to create support at $40,000, preventing deeper declines
- A fresh Bitcoin bull market is anticipated to emerge ahead of the 2028 United States presidential election
- Long-term projection calls for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2033, aligning with forecasts from Cathie Wood, Michael Saylor, and other prominent figures
Michael Terpin, a pioneering Bitcoin supporter recognized by CNBC as “the Godfather of Crypto,” believes the leading cryptocurrency faces a significant decline before any substantial upward movement. Terpin outlined his market perspective during a recent appearance on the David Lin podcast.
As the founder and CEO of Transform Ventures, a blockchain-focused investment and advisory company, Terpin authored “Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich,” detailing his analytical framework for cryptocurrency markets.
While maintaining his conviction as a long-term Bitcoin optimist, Terpin revealed he’s actively betting against Bitcoin in the current market environment. He calculates the odds at 2-to-1 favoring further price declines in the immediate future.
According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s downside target lies within a $48,000 to $60,000 corridor, with October 2026 identified as the probable trough. Terpin anticipates Bitcoin may retreat to its 200-week moving average, currently positioned near $60,000, but acknowledges potential for overshooting into the low $50,000s or upper $40,000s.
He dismisses the possibility of Bitcoin breaking below $40,000. Terpin cites corporate accumulation by Strategy and sustained Bitcoin ETF capital flows as establishing a price floor.
Rationale Behind Terpin’s Near-Term Bearish Outlook
Terpin links Bitcoin’s cyclical price movements to the United States electoral calendar. His theory suggests that Satoshi Nakamoto intentionally programmed Bitcoin halvings on a four-year schedule to coincide with US midterm elections.
He identified systematic selling operations by trading firms like Jane Street as contributing to short-term downward pressure. These strategies employ what market participants call the “10 a.m. dump” pattern, engineered to force liquidations and generate profits from bearish positions.
Concerns surrounding quantum computing capabilities also pressured Bitcoin prices from October 2025 through February 2026, Terpin noted, though he minimized the actual threat by emphasizing that compromising every Bitcoin wallet remains impossible given the network’s decentralized architecture.
Bitcoin’s Journey to Seven Figures
Terpin’s extended timeframe bullish thesis builds on established narratives: eroding confidence in fiat monetary systems, escalating sovereign debt burdens, and ongoing monetary expansion by central banks.
He anticipates Bitcoin will transition into a renewed bull cycle approaching the 2028 presidential election, following the established four-year pattern observed in previous cycles.
His ultimate price objective stands at $1 million per Bitcoin by 2033. This forecast enjoys significant company among industry leaders. VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel recently projected Bitcoin will achieve $1 million valuation within approximately five years.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, and Strategy founder Michael Saylor have all articulated comparable long-range price projections.
Terpin additionally characterized the coming decade as the artificial intelligence era, highlighting the developing AI token marketplace as an investment sector worthy of attention alongside Bitcoin.
