Key Takeaways
- Tesla (TSLA) shares have climbed approximately 30% over the last month, though the stock remains 4% lower year-to-date
- Elon Musk is currently visiting China with expectations of obtaining regulatory clearance for Full Self-Driving technology
- The electric vehicle maker disclosed 1.3 million FSD subscribers in Q1 2026, representing growth from 850,000 the previous year
- Manufacturing of Model S and Model X vehicles has been discontinued to allocate factory space for Optimus humanoid robot production
- According to McKinsey forecasts, autonomous taxi services will achieve widespread global deployment by 2030
Shares of Tesla ($TSLA) are currently changing hands near $448, reflecting approximately 30% appreciation over the previous month, although the stock continues to trade roughly 4% below its starting point for the calendar year.
The shares experienced early gains on Wednesday before retreating, settling at $432.08—a decline of 0.3%—while CEO Elon Musk traveled aboard Air Force One heading to China as part of a delegation of prominent American executives, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg.
This journey carries significant implications. Tesla is seeking regulatory permission to market its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology in China, a development that could substantially increase its subscription revenue stream.
Within the United States, FSD carries a monthly subscription fee of $99. The company concluded Q1 2026 with 1.3 million FSD paying users, representing an increase from approximately 850,000 during the same period in 2025.
Securing Chinese market access would provide substantial momentum for an enterprise that has positioned its long-term strategy around artificial intelligence-powered offerings—including FSD, autonomous taxi services, and humanoid robotics.
During Tuesday’s trading session, the stock dropped 2.6%, ending a four-session rally that had delivered gains exceeding 14%. That upward momentum was partially driven by anticipation surrounding the potential China FSD agreement.
Tesla’s core automotive operations have encountered headwinds. The manufacturer confronts declining unit sales, a relatively stagnant product portfolio, and intensifying competitive pressures across international markets.
Instead of aggressively updating its vehicle offerings, Musk has been channeling resources toward strategic initiatives with extended time horizons.
Optimus Robot Takes Priority
Earlier during this month, Tesla ceased manufacturing operations for both the Model S and Model X. This production capacity is being repurposed to establish assembly capabilities for its Optimus humanoid robot platform.
Market observers are anticipating information regarding the third generation of Optimus, which may be showcased during the summer months.
Tesla has maintained tight control over information disclosure. During the Q1 earnings discussion, Musk explained that rival companies conduct “frame-by-frame analysis” of Tesla’s public demonstrations and replicate the technology as quickly as possible.
Autonomous Taxi Market Potential
Beyond humanoid robotics, the autonomous taxi opportunity represents a cornerstone of the bullish investment thesis for Tesla.
McKinsey & Co. forecasts that robotaxi services will achieve large-scale global deployment approximately around 2030. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest estimates the total addressable market could reach between $5 trillion and $10 trillion.
Tesla has already commenced manufacturing of its Cybercab vehicle, a purpose-designed model tailored for the robotaxi sector. Trial programs are currently operational across multiple metropolitan regions.
Tesla’s substantial manufacturing infrastructure, which appears disadvantageous given current automotive sales trends, may prove beneficial as demand for autonomous taxi services expands.
The company concluded Q1 2026 with 1.3 million FSD subscribers, a figure that could increase significantly should Chinese regulators grant market authorization.
