Key Takeaways
- Q1 2025 earnings release scheduled for Thursday morning before the opening bell, with Wall Street forecasting approximately $38–39M in revenue and an EPS loss of $0.05
- Pro forma defense contract backlog reached $457M, significantly enhanced by the Mistral acquisition valued at $175M which contributed roughly $264M to the order book
- Unanimous Strong Buy ratings from 7–8 Wall Street analysts, with average price targets clustering around $20.13–$20.14, suggesting potential gains of 118–124% from current levels near $9.04
- Implied volatility from options markets indicates traders anticipate a 15.25% price movement in either direction following the earnings announcement
- Company leadership projects 2026 revenues to reach a minimum of $375M, though full profitability across operations isn’t anticipated before Q1 2028
Ondas Holdings faces a critical earnings moment this Thursday, with the stock currently hovering around $9.04 after climbing more than 56% over the last half-year. Investors and analysts alike are eager to determine whether this impressive run is justified by fundamental performance.
Wall Street consensus calls for first-quarter revenue in the $38–39 million range alongside an expected per-share loss of $0.05 — representing substantial improvement compared to the prior-year quarter, which delivered only $4.2 million in revenue and a $0.15 per-share deficit.
Such dramatic year-over-year growth deserves attention. The transformation stems largely from strategic acquisitions and an aggressively expanding portfolio of defense contracts.
The standout metric this quarter centers on contract backlog. Ondas‘ combined pro forma backlog, incorporating the recently completed acquisitions of Mistral and World View, reached approximately $457 million as of the end of March. The Mistral transaction alone, valued at $175 million, injected roughly $264 million into the pipeline.
Company executives have established a revenue objective of no less than $375 million for 2026. Needham’s Austin Bohlig believes the firm could approach $500 million if operational execution remains strong.
Substantial Contract Wins Bolster Growth Narrative
Beyond projections, Ondas has secured tangible contracts. The company participates in approximately $80 million worth of ongoing demining operations associated with Israel’s Eastern Border Security Barrier initiative.
Additionally, subsidiary INDO Earth Moving secured an initial $68 million order as part of a broader $140 million multi-year military engineering contract. These extended-duration agreements provide meaningful revenue visibility going forward.
The company has also established the ONBERG Autonomous Systems partnership in Germany, positioning itself to capture opportunities in European defense drone markets.
During the previous quarter, Ondas delivered record-breaking Q4 revenue of $30.1 million, substantially exceeding analyst projections of $15.9 million. However, the bottom line disappointed significantly, with a per-share loss of $0.34.
Wall Street Ratings and Options Market Signals
Every analyst tracking the stock maintains a Strong Buy recommendation. Price objectives span from $20 to $25, with the average consensus settling near $20.14 — representing more than 100% potential appreciation from today’s trading levels.
Maxim Group’s Matthew Galinko recently elevated his target to $22 from $16, highlighting that Ondas possesses sufficient capital reserves to sustain operations until reaching breakeven, currently scheduled for 2028 according to management guidance.
However, the derivatives market suggests caution. Options traders are incorporating a 15.25% potential move in either direction following the earnings release — an unusually wide band that signals substantial uncertainty regarding whether revenue acceleration is materializing as expected.
Profitability remains a medium-term objective. Management anticipates achieving product-level profitability by the third quarter of 2026, but comprehensive company-wide profitability won’t arrive until the first quarter of 2028.
Thursday’s financial results represent the first meaningful checkpoint for assessing whether the substantial backlog is converting into recognized revenue at the rates projected by both management and Wall Street.
Ondas releases earnings before Thursday’s market open on May 14, 2026.
