Key Takeaways
- CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator switched to green on May 12, marking the first occurrence since March 2023
- When this signal last activated in March 2023, Bitcoin surged from $20,000 to surpass $73,000
- Experts caution that March 2022 produced a false signal, indicating confirmation isn’t certain
- Breaking through the $82,000 resistance threshold is necessary to validate the bullish signal
- Arthur Hayes identifies $90,000 as the catalyst for a significant rally toward $126,000
For the first time in over two years, Bitcoin’s CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has transitioned into bullish territory. This technical shift occurred on May 12, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price action above $80,000 following an approximately 35% recovery from its February bottom of $60,000.
Constructed using CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, the indicator synthesizes multiple metrics including the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and a comparative analysis of Long-Term Holder versus Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios. According to Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, this transition “often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed.”
The last verified green reading materialized in March 2023 and persisted through August 2024. Throughout this timeframe, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable ascent from approximately $20,000 to a record peak exceeding $73,000.
Institutional accumulation demonstrated significant strength in April, with spot [[LINK_START_0]]Bitcoin[[LINK_END_0]] ETF products attracting $2.44 billion in inflowsâthe most substantial monthly institutional buying activity since October 2025. Meanwhile, Glassnode’s RHODL ratio registers at 4.5, representing the third-highest measurement in Bitcoin’s trading history. Comparable readings have only appeared during the 2015 and 2022 cycle troughs.
Expert Skepticism and Historical Context
Not all market observers interpret this development as definitive confirmation of a bull market phase. Mati Greenspan, who founded Quantum Economics, characterizes the indicator as a regime-identification tool rather than a predictive mechanism. He notes it is “most useful for identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset.”
According to Greenspan, authentic confirmation demands persistent demand patterns, adequate liquidity, and price stability at elevated levels. “So now all eyes are on price action to confirm validation,” he stated.
The most notable historical anomaly occurred in March 2022. During that period, the indicator briefly registered green before Bitcoin continued its downward trajectory well into 2023. Market analysts reference this episode as justification for maintaining a cautious stance.
Moreno additionally highlighted weakness in various supplementary metrics. The Fear and Greed index currently reflects neutral sentiment, while broader macroeconomic conditions remain complicated.
Critical $82,000 Resistance Zone
Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled to establish a decisive breakthrough above $82,000, a resistance threshold that has turned back several upward momentum attempts. Moreno emphasizes that penetrating this ceiling represents a prerequisite for price action to validate the bullish indicator signal.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam, noted that indicators such as MVRV and NUPL “were never designed to be precise trading signals.” He frames them as conceptual tools for understanding Bitcoin’s position within extended liquidity cycles.
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom and BitMEX co-founder, believes Bitcoin already established its cycle floor at $60,000 earlier in 2026. He pinpoints $90,000 as the price point where any upward movement would accelerate dramatically, with the previous all-time high of $126,000 serving as the subsequent objective.
Lacie Zhang, analyst at Bitget Wallet, suggests Bitcoin is “positioned for a potential breakout toward $85,000 to $90,000,” pointing to robust institutional backing and persistent ETF inflows as fundamental drivers.
