Key Takeaways
- Intel (INTC) shares have climbed approximately 90% in the past 12 months, currently hovering near $46 with a 5.7% daily gain.
- The company’s valuation sits at 112x earnings, while Wall Street forecasts EPS to almost double by 2027.
- Projected EBITDA growth shows an increase from $1.2B in 2024 to $25.1B by 2028.
- The chipmaker participated in a $350M investment round for AI-chip company SambaNova and established a long-term technical collaboration.
- Wall Street consensus stands at “Reduce” with a $45.74 target price, despite recent upgrades from multiple firms.
Intel’s (INTC) shares have experienced an impressive comeback. From touching a low of roughly $17.67 in the past year, the stock has rebounded to approximately $46 — representing a near 90% surge that has Wall Street debating the sustainability of this rally.
Shares advanced an additional 5.7% during Wednesday’s session, with an opening price of $46.12.
For a semiconductor giant that struggled against competitors for several years, this reversal has captured significant investor interest. However, the underlying metrics warrant careful examination.
The stock currently commands a 112x earnings multiple, even when accounting for non-recurring adjustments. That represents a premium valuation for a chipmaker still recording negative net profit margins.
What’s fueling investor appetite at these levels? The answer lies in forward earnings projections.
Wall Street forecasts full-year 2026 EPS at $0.48, reflecting a 15% annual increase. By 2027, expectations call for that figure to approach $1, nearly doubling. Certain projections extend as far as $1.80.
Should these targets materialize, current buyers could find themselves paying under 20x 2028 earnings.
Intel exceeded Q4 expectations, delivering EPS of $0.15 versus the $0.08 consensus forecast. Revenue totaled $13.67 billion, surpassing the $13.37 billion estimate. The caveat: revenue declined 4.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Q1 2026 guidance proved cautious, with EPS projected flat and revenue anticipated in the $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion range. Management indicated that supply constraints hit their lowest point in Q1 before recovering throughout the year.
SambaNova Partnership Enhances AI Strategy
A recent development: Intel participated in a $350 million funding round for AI-chip startup SambaNova, announcing a multiyear technical collaboration centered on AI inference technology. CEO Lip-Bu Tan maintains an investor and chairman position at SambaNova — a connection that has generated both interest and questions.
This arrangement emerged after previously reported acquisition discussions collapsed. Intel now maintains a financial interest and technical agreement instead of complete ownership.
Broader semiconductor momentum provided additional support. A major agreement between AMD and Meta boosted chip stocks across the board, carrying Intel upward with the sector.
Institutional Investors Increase Positions
EverSource Wealth Advisors expanded its Intel holdings by 45.1% during Q3, acquiring an additional 13,700 shares to reach 44,090 total, representing approximately $1.48 million.
Norges Bank established a fresh position valued at around $1.58 billion. Vanguard expanded its stake by 2.3%, now controlling more than 385 million shares worth $8.64 billion. Institutional ownership accounts for 64.53% of outstanding shares.
Regarding insider transactions, EVP David Zinsner purchased $249,985 in INTC shares at $42.50 each in late January. EVP April Miller divested $981,000 worth at $49.05 in early February.
EBITDA projections show growth from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $25.1 billion by 2028 — a trajectory supporting much of the optimistic thesis.
The 50-day moving average stands at $44.04, while the 200-day moving average rests at $37.00. Wall Street’s consensus rating remains “Reduce” with a $45.74 price objective. The breakdown shows five Buy ratings, 26 Hold ratings, and six Sell ratings.
