TLDR
- Bitcoin recovered above $65,000 mid-week as Asian stock markets gained momentum and the dollar softened
- Crypto markets are forming a possible double-bottom structure, presenting either 10% upside potential or 25% downside risk depending on how it plays out
- BTC’s weekly RSI dropped to 25.71, marking the lowest reading since July 2022 and indicating extreme oversold conditions
- President Trump’s State of the Union speech contained no cryptocurrency references, causing earlier gains to diminish
- Options traders have positioned $230 million in put contracts expiring March 6 at the $58,000 strike, showing bearish hedging activity
Bitcoin pushed past the $65,000 threshold on Wednesday, supported by a declining U.S. dollar and strength across Asian equity markets, marking the cryptocurrency’s most convincing recovery attempt in recent weeks.
The leading cryptocurrency reached an intraday peak of $66,000 during Asian market hours, representing its strongest single-day performance since mid-February. However, momentum cooled as BTC settled near $65,400 while President Trump delivered his State of the Union remarks.
Ethereum posted gains exceeding 2.5%, trading around $1,906. Solana surged up to 7%, while XRP registered approximately 3.5% growth during the same timeframe.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization had declined to $2.19 trillion earlier in the week, approaching the depths witnessed during the February 5 market crash.
FxPro analysts identify an emerging double-bottom chart pattern in the broader market. According to Alex Kuptsikevich from FxPro, maintaining this support level could deliver approximately 10% gains, while a breakdown risks triggering a 25% correction.
Caroline Mauron from Orbit Markets characterized the early price action as bargain-hunting following a prolonged downturn. She emphasized that breaking through $70,000 would be necessary to fundamentally alter market sentiment.
Extreme Oversold Conditions Emerge
Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index has fallen to 25.71, matching lows last observed in July 2022. Previous instances of RSI dipping below 28 have frequently preceded market reversals and presented attractive entry points for buyers.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy Research’s head analyst, noted that Bitcoin is “nearing all-time oversold territory,” with weekly RSI readings comparable only to the most severe bear market phases.
Additionally, Bitcoin trades just 9% above its 200-week exponential moving average, currently at $58,855—a threshold that has historically signaled the beginning of bottoming formations in previous market cycles.
Analyst Rekt Capital presented a more reserved perspective, noting that a confirmed daily close beneath the 200-EMA could transform that indicator into overhead resistance during any subsequent rally attempts.
Material Indicators, a market analytics platform, highlighted a substantial $4.5 million spot accumulation by institutional buyers on Tuesday, significantly exceeding the typical $1 to $2 million order sizes from this cohort.
State of the Union Address Lacks Crypto Discussion
Market momentum began deteriorating before Trump concluded his congressional address. Despite his pro-cryptocurrency stance, digital assets received no mention throughout the speech.
Earlier in the week, the Supreme Court invalidated Trump’s emergency authority to implement reciprocal tariffs, a decision that had already pressured crypto valuations. Trump subsequently announced plans to impose 15% worldwide tariffs through alternative legal mechanisms.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined following the address. While dollar weakness has traditionally supported Bitcoin prices, this correlation has proven unreliable during the current downturn.
Nearly $230 million in put option contracts expiring March 6 are concentrated at the $58,000 strike price. Sean McNulty from FalconX attributes this positioning to concerns about potential U.S. military action against Iran, with Polymarket prediction markets pricing the probability at 48% by March 15.
