Key Highlights
- March PCE inflation accelerated to 3.5%, marking the steepest climb since August 2023
- BTC declined to approximately $76,000 in response to inflation figures
- Bitcoin ETFs registered $490 million in combined outflows across a three-day period
- Prediction markets indicate a 58% likelihood of no Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026
- Technical analyst Ted Pillows identified potential rebound signals after BTC maintained $75,000 support
Recent U.S. inflation figures have triggered downward pressure on Bitcoin, as the PCE price index reached levels not seen in almost three years.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index advanced 3.5% on an annual basis and 0.7% monthly for March. The core PCE measurement registered 3.2% year-over-year, representing the highest figure since November 2023.
Following the data publication, Bitcoin retreated to the $76,000 threshold. Current market data from TradingView indicates BTC is exchanging hands near $76,400 at the time of publication.
During its most recent policy meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained current interest rate levels, citing uncertainties stemming from the developing U.S.-Iran tensions as a primary consideration. The elevated PCE figures bolster arguments for maintaining monetary policy unchanged for a third straight session.
Data from Polymarket reveals the probability of zero rate adjustments in 2026 has climbed to 58%, a substantial increase from the 39% recorded just 48 hours prior. This dramatic expectation shift is creating headwinds for risk-oriented assets like Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ted Pillows highlighted on X that BTC tested the $75,000 threshold before experiencing upward momentum. He observed strong buying activity at that price point, suggesting a potential short-term upward movement could materialize. Market participants are closely monitoring $75,000 as a critical support threshold.
Exchange-Traded Fund Withdrawals Intensify Selling Pressure
Spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States experienced combined net withdrawals totaling $490 million from Monday through Wednesday. This marks a reversal from the positive inflow pattern observed during the preceding two-week period and signals weakening near-term institutional appetite.
While recent days have witnessed outflows, Bitcoin exchange-traded products have attracted $3.3 billion in cumulative inflows throughout March, indicating the broader trajectory remains constructive.
Bitcoin has declined 14% since the start of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500’s achievement of record peaks. Disappointing technology sector earnings contributed to cautious investor sentiment, with Meta declining 9% and Microsoft falling 4% following their quarterly reports.
Crude Oil Rally Dampens Risk Appetite
Brent crude oil surpassed $120 per barrel and recently touched $126, propelled by escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. Elevated energy prices have pushed five-year Treasury yields to 4.02%, up from 3.51% eight weeks ago, prompting traders to reduce risk exposure.
Strategy, under Michael Saylor’s leadership, acquired 56,235 BTC during April’s first four weeks with an average purchase price of $75,537. Market observers are monitoring whether this accumulation velocity continues.
First quarter U.S. GDP expanded at a 2% annualized pace, marginally below the 2.3% consensus forecast from economists. President Trump additionally dismissed Iran’s most recent proposal to resume operations at the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
