Key Takeaways
- Q1 earnings announcement scheduled for April 30, with Wall Street forecasting a per-share loss between $0.41 and $0.43
- Projected revenue of $1.73–$1.74 billion represents more than 43% annual growth
- Post-earnings implied volatility suggests approximately 15% price movement in either direction
- Daily Active Users projected to reach 145.65 million, a significant increase from 97.8 million year-over-year
- Several analysts have reduced price targets while retaining Buy recommendations, with average target at $105.10
Shares of Roblox have declined approximately 30% since the start of 2026 as the company prepares to unveil its first-quarter earnings on April 30. Following impressive fourth-quarter 2025 results, investor expectations remain elevated for the gaming platform.
Analyst consensus points to a net loss ranging from $0.41 to $0.43 per share for the period. This represents a deeper loss compared to the $0.32 deficit recorded during the first quarter of 2025. Top-line projections hover around $1.73–$1.74 billion, marking a robust year-over-year increase exceeding 43%.
Bookings — a critical performance indicator for Roblox — are anticipated to reach $1.73 billion, versus $1.21 billion in the comparable year-ago quarter.
Interestingly, the consensus earnings per share estimate has been adjusted upward by 5% during the last month, indicating growing analyst confidence leading up to the report.
Platform Engagement Metrics Under the Microscope
Daily Active User counts will likely dominate investor attention. Street estimates call for 145.65 million DAUs, representing substantial expansion from the 97.8 million recorded in Q1 2025.
Total engagement hours are forecasted at 34.59 billion, a considerable jump from 21.70 billion in the prior-year period. Expansion is anticipated across every geographic segment — Asia-Pacific, Europe, United States & Canada, and remaining global markets.
APAC region DAUs are expected to climb to 44.25 million from 26.3 million. Europe is projected to see 34.69 million daily users, up from 23.6 million. The US & Canada segment is forecast at 24.88 million, compared to 19.7 million previously.
Options market activity signals expectations for significant volatility. The implied move for RBLX stock following the earnings release stands at roughly 15% in either direction. This exceeds the four-quarter average post-earnings movement of 9.59%.
Wall Street Adjusts Outlook While Maintaining Optimism
Benjamin Black from Deutsche Bank reduced his price objective to $85 from $115, pointing to softer user engagement patterns. However, he highlighted the platform’s subscription offering as a continuing strength.
Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan decreased his target to $125 from $140 while preserving his Buy rating. He emphasized that platform enhancements and mid-quarter metrics continue to validate the long-term expansion narrative.
Michael Pachter at Wedbush lowered his target to $90 from $110, also keeping a Buy stance. He observed that the stock has already experienced significant depreciation from its August 2025 high, with decelerating DAU momentum and weakening concurrent user activity largely priced into current valuations.
Among recent analyst activity spanning three months, the stock carries 17 Buy ratings, four Hold ratings, and one Sell rating, translating to a Moderate Buy consensus. The mean price target of $105.10 suggests potential upside of approximately 82.7% from present trading levels.
The earnings release is scheduled for after market hours on April 30. Management’s forward outlook and user engagement commentary will likely influence stock performance more significantly than the quarterly figures themselves.
